The surest path to world peace lies in the collapse of the US economy.
I know, many people do not want to hear this. Many will vehemently deny it. I already expect personal attacks and “America, love it or leave it” responses by people who will not even read this far. They won’t go any further than the title. That doesn’t change the truth.
Of course, there will be the QAnon/Trump devotees who will claim that this is all part of the plan. There’s no need to dignify such ignorance with a response.
Am I saying that if/when this occurs that there would be absolutely no armed conflicts anywhere on the planet? No, I’m sure there would be. However, the duration and scale would be decreased dramatically.
Think back, look back at world history since WWII. Can you name an armed conflict, any armed conflict in which the US was not involved as a major influence? Anywhere? Even if you can, place it in perspective of all the conflicts in which we have been involved. Look at every single potential for armed conflict right now and name one which we are not actively inciting that conflict to elevate further.
Our military budget was just increased again, by $22 billion to an official $738 billion. As I’ve written before, that does not include funding for the VA, upgrading nukes, NSA, CIA or FBI. When you add those to the military budget, we spend more on “defense” than every other country on earth, combined.
This all comes as our economy is retracting and our national debt accounts for over 1/3 of all global national debt. China has surpassed the US as the largest consumer economy, greatest number of Fortune 500 companies and a higher number of top ten global banks.
How many armed conflicts is China involved in as a major player? None.
Many Americans are oblivious to the fact that we are currently bombing 7 countries and have been for years. They can name two countries we are bombing at most. We drop at least 121 bombs a day at an average cost of $80,000 each.
This week it made the news that the House of Representatives have asked the military to account for how many foreign military bases the US has and justify the need for that many. However, that doesn’t mean much when they do this after handing the military an increased budget and we spend $130 billion a year, every year, on upgrading nuclear weapons. That’s not even included in the military budget. How about they ask why we need so many nuclear weapons? Wouldn’t 50 be enough? Or 20? Why the hell do we have 6800?!!!! (Personally I think they should be eradicated completely.)
The obvious problem with wars has to do with the fact that they cost money. Lots of money. Sure, a limited number of people make profits from warfare but the money still has to come from somewhere. Right now, the US is printing money wildly, which dilutes the value of each dollar in circulation. Right now, we have a trade deficit with nearly every country we trade with. Right now, we owe money to many countries through US Treasury bonds. Right now, the value of the dollar is propped up by the petrodollar system.
Right now other countries are selling off US Treasury bonds. Right now China has stopped buying oil from us and has decreased purchases of major crops. Right now, other countries are having economic issues which preclude buying US Treasuries. Right now numerous countries have started buying gold because they find the dollar too insecure. Right now the petrodollar system is collapsing as country after country is trading oil in other currencies, largely in Chinese yuan. Right now one country after another is turning away from buying weapons which leave them dependent on the US. They are opting for Russian and Chinese arms which cost less yet perform far better than ours.
So the question becomes how the US can afford to fund another war, or even the ones we are currently in? How long can this continue before the dollar is devalued and we see double to triple digit inflation?
The bigger question is, who is going to loan us money to wage more wars when they don’t trust us to pay them back what we already owe? Who is going to loan us money when we are threatening basically every country in existence with either war or economic sanctions? Is it likely they will loan us money they don’t trust will be repaid just so we don’t attack them in some way? Or is it more likely they will band together to defend themselves from us?
One economist after another is expecting a recession in the near future. Other, more realistic economists who are not tied to WAR Street say that we are already in a recession and have been for some time. Some state that we have never recovered from the 2008 recession and for many this is true. Wages have never recovered for sure. If wages don’t recover, there is no way that the general economy does. It’s all smoke and mirrors. Many try and downplay how bad the next recession or stage of the current recession will be. I am expecting the worst recession in US history because of the combination of influences.
Ultimately what we can expect is that the economy will falter. This will finally lead to the absolute necessity to rein in military spending. As the US curtails military aggression and arming/funding proxy wars, we will see peace slowly return, along with diplomacy to many countries and regions that have not known these things for many years. There is no doubt that our warmongers will attempt to incite more conflict along the way but be rebuffed and rejected by nations seeking a different path forward.
In the short term, none of this will be good news for the domestic US. The oligarchs will try and continue the same processes, followed by trying to strip the country bare for their own greed. In the long run, we will change as a country. We will see peace, see that we do not need to spend our money or sacrifice military lives to achieve that peace. Some will claim we helped bring that peace into being. Those are the dangerous ones whom we must educate, that the militarism was never necessary. Keep them out of power, remove them from the media.
The economy will recover over time but not for a long while. By the time it does, we will have found a dedication to build rather than destroy, to lean on one another and to demand a government that supports people over the profits of the rich.
It’s not going to be easy but this is the future our country has created. We have to deal with it.