US Embassy Attack, Still Just A Warning.. For Now

On Sunday, 1/27/2020, the US embassy in Baghdad was struck by 3 rockets. One person suffered minor injuries. This attack came 2 days after more than one million Iraqis gathered to peacefully protest the ongoing US military presence in Iraq, which can no longer be considered anything but an illegal occupation.

One of the most interesting (sic) aspects of this is that our media barely mentioned the massive protest at all. The missile strike was all over every channel and source as leading news.

The US Embassy is located in the “Green Zone”, which is one of the most militarily fortified compounds in the world. That did not prevent the attack from happening and will not prevent future attacks.

The response of the US government matters to an extreme for our 5200 military members stationed throughout Iraq right now. If the fortifications of the embassy are strengthened, that could very well anger the Iraqi people even more. It would be seen as the US government “digging in” with no intention of ever leaving. No matter how much the embassy is fortified, the personnel must commute outside the Green Zone at times. Supplies must enter the compound. Plus the obvious fact that not all 5200 service members are in the one compound but in lesser secured locations in the country. The rising tensions place all of them in danger. The service members are spread across multiple locations across a nation roughly the size of Texas, with a population of over 38 million. Most of whom follow a cleric who has openly called for US forces to leave.

Increasing warnings. This attack came roughly one week after another attack, which allegedly did no significant damage and caused no injuries. I warned at that time that that attack was a warning with no intention of doing harm. This most recent attack on Sunday struck the dining hall of the compound during dinner time, so it appears that harm was intended but not severe harm with the limited scope of the attack.

They know the compound. Keep in mind that our military forces have been in Iraq for over 16 years. Therefore it can be no question that anti-US influences have access to full knowledge of the Green Zone compound, which was previously the palace compound of Saddam Hussein. They may have made some alterations but the basic layout is still the same as it has been, possibly for centuries. They have contact with Iraqi military and possibly civilian personnel who know the schedules, routines and most of the security precautions in place for the compound. To entertain any fantasy that this was a failed attack rather than a more emphatic warning is naive and foolish.

There were more than 3 rockets. The US military reports 5 rockets total were launched at the compound that day, which is an increase in the number of attacks being attempted. One cannot question that the number and severity of attacks being launched will escalate rapidly and we can expect to hear of casualties in the very near future.

Blame Iran? The US government and media are portraying these attacks as originating from Iran with no evidence offered. Yet these attacks are taking place in a country the US invaded illegally, has maintained a presence in for 16 years, where the US armed terrorist groups, where we were told to leave by the prime minister and then we assassinated the leader of the PMU along with Iranian general Soleimani, who is credited with turning the tide against ISIS. Followed by refusal to leave after being told conclusively by their parliament to get out and threatening to impose sanctions on the country after seizing 50% of the profits from oil sales out of Iraq for years. Meanwhile the Iraqi people struggle with unemployment and poverty as a result of the conditions we created.

Something tells me the claims accusing Iran don’t hold much water.

Fear of settling differences. Both Iraq and Iran are majority Shia Muslim countries. Saudi Arabia is mostly Sunni Muslim. However, there are growing whispers that Saudi Arabia is reaching out to Iran and Iraq to settle differences. If that happens, the conflict in Yemen will cease. Quite likely the terrorist attacks in Syria will cease as well. This is what the US militarists fear most of all. It is a possibility. Remember that there was a time when nobody believed Protestants and Catholics would ever learn to coexist. There was a time when nobody thought the IRA (Irish Republican Army) would ever lay down their arms. Yet those things happened. The settling of differences in the ME could happen very soon and quickly when all countries face an external threat that unifies them. The US/Israel alliance is just such a threat.

It is far beyond time for the US to withdraw our forces from countries where we never had a right to any presence in the first place. Our government and media claim that US forces and “interests” are attacked in these countries. Countries we invaded illegally, killed millions and armed proxy terrorists to kill more, plundered and pillaged resources which we have NO right to under any law. None of our people or “interests” would risk attack if they were not there. Even Iraq has said they don’t want Americans gone, just the American military.

None of these governments are going to threaten retaliation against the US on domestic US soil. However, we have empowered and then abandoned terrorist groups multiple times. We have only a few thousand troops in all of these countries combined right now. In one way or another our government has been instrumental in destroying huge portions of their countries. Meanwhile they have watched our military dominance fade and our economy retract. They realize that Israel and Saudi Arabia are far too dependent on the US. They have seen the recent increase in defense aid from the US to Israel, which could be the spark that lights the final fuse.

If we wait any longer for these countries to form an alliance, then we should all fear greatly for the US service personnel in Iraq and Syria.

We won’t get many more warnings. Each one should be considered the final warning.

Warning Shots

It is being reported that there have been rocket or missile strikes near but not striking the “Green Zone” in Afghanistan. This is an area encompassing US and other embassies in the country.

These no- and low-casualty strikes are intentional in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. They are meant to be warning shots to send a message to our government that our presence is not welcome.

The warnings are not going to continue for long. It is likely expected by our government and media that there will be a gradual escalation of warnings, followed by increasingly aggressive attacks. That is not what I expect to happen at all.

Our opposition in these countries understand something very clearly. That a gradual increase in aggression gives our military time to build a greater defense, import more weaponry, etc. Our military has been in their countries for many years and they have learned our tactics quite well. In many instances we trained them in our tactics. By the fact that our forces are still there, this indicates we have not learned their tactics nearly as well and even when we do, they adapt far more readily than our military is capable of.

Not only are these warnings but they are tests to see what our response will be. In Iraq, our bases suffered a minor attack. In response, our government is sending 3000 more soldiers into a country which we have been told to leave. Trump stated we have a right to claim their resources after destroying their country. Now they know how we will respond. Increased aggression and denial of sovereignty.

Maybe you still think this is just Trump. I will remind you that GWB ignored the UNSC and invaded Iraq. Obama asked Congress for approval to bomb Libya, was refused and bombed Libya, any way. Now the US is involving itself in talks about the future of Libya. We armed and funded Al Qaeda and ISIS.

I find it far more likely that the opposition in these countries will give little more warning and then strike our forces savagely. Completely overrun the US forces already in the region. They may take our forces prisoner or wipe them out entirely. Taking them hostage would make the most sense and what I would hope for. They may not see it that way in all cases.

In any case, removing those forces from action and seizing any armaments would strike a serious bow to any reinforcements we may attempt to introduce. Seizing the bases and all that is in them or destroying them would require that we send more heavy equipment. Personnel can be sent quickly. Large equipment and supplies takes more time. Days, weeks, even months.

Now consider if they should coordinate attacks across even one country, let alone alone 2, 3 countries or more, an area half the size of the US, what would this scenario look like?

Iraq has already taken their case to remove our forces to the UN General Assembly, knowing that the US controls the UNSC. It is not an appeal to use of force, it is an appeal for their own national sovereignty. Syria has tried the same and was basically denied that right but attempted their appeal through the UNSC. At this point, all nations are watching closely to see what happens. If Iraq is denied their own right to self determination, the answer for all these countries will be clear that they must take their fate into their own hands. Live enslaved or die fighting for their freedom. These warning shots have already told you what their choice will be.

I could be wrong or they could use a combination of approaches. Another choice could be that they could sever supply routes, order our forces to stand down in limited areas and disarm willingly. Still allowed food, water and shelter. Our entire military presence could be held prisoner on our own bases pending a more definitive decision on our part. Make the wrong decision and it would seal the fate of our forces already present. Remove the personnel and equipment already in the region as active components and becoming a hostage liability and the balance of power in our favor capsizes.

I’ve pointed out that the US has nothing to win in the Middle East when confronted with the array of sovereign nations increasingly aligning against us. Throw in the alliances with Russia and China with these nations and we would literally sacrifice all of our military forces along with the collapse of the petrodollar and hence the dollar by continuing to pursue the path of aggression we have been following for 18 years. The impending confrontation would obliterate our military and our economy and would be a useless blood bath, killing millions of human beings.

For what? So a few oil company CEO’s and investors can get richer? To sell more weapons? To avoid the shame of another military loss? We’ve been there before and survived it. Maybe it’s time we learned from the past and stopped substituting testosterone for brain cells. Maybe it’s time to admit this entire country has a case of Tiny Hand Syndrome.

How many lives are you willing to sacrifice? How much blood are you willing to spill? How much economic collapse can you withstand? The time has come to make that decision. Because our choice is now being made for us right now. We cannot chance how many warnings we will be allowed. This is not a Mexican standoff we are facing. This is a firing squad, fully locked and loaded. Should we throw our guns down and walk away? Or lift our weapon and die in a blaze of glory? That sounds a lot more romantic than it is.

This is not a movie and we have no heroic cause.