Warning Shots

It is being reported that there have been rocket or missile strikes near but not striking the “Green Zone” in Afghanistan. This is an area encompassing US and other embassies in the country.

These no- and low-casualty strikes are intentional in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. They are meant to be warning shots to send a message to our government that our presence is not welcome.

The warnings are not going to continue for long. It is likely expected by our government and media that there will be a gradual escalation of warnings, followed by increasingly aggressive attacks. That is not what I expect to happen at all.

Our opposition in these countries understand something very clearly. That a gradual increase in aggression gives our military time to build a greater defense, import more weaponry, etc. Our military has been in their countries for many years and they have learned our tactics quite well. In many instances we trained them in our tactics. By the fact that our forces are still there, this indicates we have not learned their tactics nearly as well and even when we do, they adapt far more readily than our military is capable of.

Not only are these warnings but they are tests to see what our response will be. In Iraq, our bases suffered a minor attack. In response, our government is sending 3000 more soldiers into a country which we have been told to leave. Trump stated we have a right to claim their resources after destroying their country. Now they know how we will respond. Increased aggression and denial of sovereignty.

Maybe you still think this is just Trump. I will remind you that GWB ignored the UNSC and invaded Iraq. Obama asked Congress for approval to bomb Libya, was refused and bombed Libya, any way. Now the US is involving itself in talks about the future of Libya. We armed and funded Al Qaeda and ISIS.

I find it far more likely that the opposition in these countries will give little more warning and then strike our forces savagely. Completely overrun the US forces already in the region. They may take our forces prisoner or wipe them out entirely. Taking them hostage would make the most sense and what I would hope for. They may not see it that way in all cases.

In any case, removing those forces from action and seizing any armaments would strike a serious bow to any reinforcements we may attempt to introduce. Seizing the bases and all that is in them or destroying them would require that we send more heavy equipment. Personnel can be sent quickly. Large equipment and supplies takes more time. Days, weeks, even months.

Now consider if they should coordinate attacks across even one country, let alone alone 2, 3 countries or more, an area half the size of the US, what would this scenario look like?

Iraq has already taken their case to remove our forces to the UN General Assembly, knowing that the US controls the UNSC. It is not an appeal to use of force, it is an appeal for their own national sovereignty. Syria has tried the same and was basically denied that right but attempted their appeal through the UNSC. At this point, all nations are watching closely to see what happens. If Iraq is denied their own right to self determination, the answer for all these countries will be clear that they must take their fate into their own hands. Live enslaved or die fighting for their freedom. These warning shots have already told you what their choice will be.

I could be wrong or they could use a combination of approaches. Another choice could be that they could sever supply routes, order our forces to stand down in limited areas and disarm willingly. Still allowed food, water and shelter. Our entire military presence could be held prisoner on our own bases pending a more definitive decision on our part. Make the wrong decision and it would seal the fate of our forces already present. Remove the personnel and equipment already in the region as active components and becoming a hostage liability and the balance of power in our favor capsizes.

I’ve pointed out that the US has nothing to win in the Middle East when confronted with the array of sovereign nations increasingly aligning against us. Throw in the alliances with Russia and China with these nations and we would literally sacrifice all of our military forces along with the collapse of the petrodollar and hence the dollar by continuing to pursue the path of aggression we have been following for 18 years. The impending confrontation would obliterate our military and our economy and would be a useless blood bath, killing millions of human beings.

For what? So a few oil company CEO’s and investors can get richer? To sell more weapons? To avoid the shame of another military loss? We’ve been there before and survived it. Maybe it’s time we learned from the past and stopped substituting testosterone for brain cells. Maybe it’s time to admit this entire country has a case of Tiny Hand Syndrome.

How many lives are you willing to sacrifice? How much blood are you willing to spill? How much economic collapse can you withstand? The time has come to make that decision. Because our choice is now being made for us right now. We cannot chance how many warnings we will be allowed. This is not a Mexican standoff we are facing. This is a firing squad, fully locked and loaded. Should we throw our guns down and walk away? Or lift our weapon and die in a blaze of glory? That sounds a lot more romantic than it is.

This is not a movie and we have no heroic cause.

There Is Absolutely NOTHING To Win In A War With Iran

Yesterday Iran launched missile strikes against US military installations in Iraq. This was in response to the US assassination of their most revered general, who was in Iraq to meet the Iraqi PM in peace talks, by all accounts.

The missile strike now divides the US populace, with some calling for retaliation against Iran and others opposing further military action.

The assassination was not the only attack by the US in Iraq. The US also struck the Iraqi PMU, which is labeled a terrorist organization by the US government. The PMU is a part of the Iraqi military which fights against ISIS very effectively. Which means our government directly attacked the military of a sovereign government while claiming we are there to help them fight ISIS.

There are claims that General Soleimani is responsible for US deaths. Funny how we are just now hearing this and the claims are extremely vague. The actual reason for these claims is because Iran, under Soleimani, trained Iraqi military. They used that training when Iraq was invaded by US forces under knowingly false pretenses in 2003. Where are those WMD’s again?

This also comes while Iran has been struggling for years under US trade sanctions which have severely damaged their economy. For claims that they have violated the JCPOA nuclear agreement. Never mind that there has been no evidence presented of any violation. Never mind that the IAEA stated clearly Iran was in compliance. Never mind that all other nations signed onto the agreement have remained dedicated to the JCPOA. Never mind that Iran invited US inspectors into the country to confirm their compliance. Never mind that the US government refused to conduct those inspections.

This also comes after the Iraqi Prime Minister told the US to remove our military forces from the country. Since the missile attacks, the Iraqi parliament voted unanimously for the US forces to leave the country. Some will point out that not all the parliament was present for that vote. Yet it has been several days since the vote and the groups who were absent have not issued an opposing statement in any form. In response to parliament telling us to leave, Trump has threatened to impose crippling sanctions against Iraq. That’s funny, I thought we were supposed to be there to HELP them? How do sanctions achieve that?

Let’s make this clear. Every Middle East country in which the US is conducting combat operations wants our forces gone. No, we are NOT doing combat inside Saudi Arabia, Israel or Turkey. We are in Syria illegally and they want us out. We invaded Iraq illegally and they want us gone. We overthrew the Taliban in Afghanistan and have been there for 18 years. Today the Taliban has more public support in Afghanistan than they have had at any point since 2001 and they control more of the country than ever. The people want us gone. Only the US puppet PM claims to want us there.

Look at a map. If the US declares war against Iran, This will require using all of our forces and resources from other ME countries and redirecting them toward Iran. Which means we would no longer be fighting ISIS at all. Now, look at the countries which would be to our rear and flanks. Those would be the same countries that have told us to get out. The same countries whose governments we have tried to overthrow, with varied levels of success but mostly failed.

Yes, Israel and Saudi Arabia would also be there. Yet those two countries have not seen combat the way our opponents have. They have funded and armed proxy terrorists to fight for them. In other words, mercenaries. Israel and Saudi Arabia are also HIGHLY dependent on the US for their arms and economies. If all of our resources are mandated to fight Iran, primarily our weapons production capabilities, the US will no longer be able to supply weapons to Israel and SA. So, IF they defended our rear, their weapons supplies would be exhausted within days. Tactically, all their enemies have to do is destroy the shipping ports and possibly airports of those two countries and they will be economically crippled. No need to confront their military forces. That would also strangle their supply lines. Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz and that would stop multiple countries in their tracks.

Russia and China. Only a few weeks ago, Iran held joint military drills with Russia and China. In other words, two major military forces of countries we have directly threatened and opposed militarily and economically. Countries with advanced weapons capabilities. Should they step into the battle, there is no effective way we could fight back. If they stepped in early enough, even if the US enacted a draft, the war would be over before new recruits could be trained here. In addition, the US relies heavily on rare earth minerals from China, which they could easily embargo. That would strangle our ability to build many electronics and military equipment. China could cease trade with the US, leaving store shelves completely empty, so our general economy would largely collapse.

Don’t count on NATO. Allegedly, NATO forces have already begun pulling out of Iraq. Europe relies heavily on trade with ME countries and China. In addition to the fact that assassinating a military leader and directly attacking a sovereign military force was a step too far for Europe. Yes, the UK may assist us but that would be a difficult sell to the UK public. Especially when they are still debating Brexit. If NATO opposes action, they would have to divest themselves of NATO, which would be largely irreversible. Political sentiment across Europe would affect their trade. On their own, with limited trade and lessened military capability, they would not be much help and would face the same conditions the US would face.

Nothing to gain. There is literally nothing to gain in any of this. We have turned allies across the ME into enemies. We are facing opposition across the globe on this, including a massive percentage of the US public. Our government can try to claim we are being attacked but have refused the option to simply leave countries where we are not wanted. More people are aware of this than at any point in past history. We have no right to be there. We cannot claim we are fighting terrorists when we turn our backs against ISIS to fight multiple sovereign nations inside their own countries. This would be a war which would either end quickly with our absolute defeat or would continue indefinitely for generations. Diplomatic relations would NEVER be repaired.

So, if you support some military action against Iran, you also support actions against Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and possibly Russia and China. You mindlessly, emotionally support a war which we cannot win and in which there is no such thing as winning. I expect other nations to realize this immediately.