Warning Shots

It is being reported that there have been rocket or missile strikes near but not striking the “Green Zone” in Afghanistan. This is an area encompassing US and other embassies in the country.

These no- and low-casualty strikes are intentional in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. They are meant to be warning shots to send a message to our government that our presence is not welcome.

The warnings are not going to continue for long. It is likely expected by our government and media that there will be a gradual escalation of warnings, followed by increasingly aggressive attacks. That is not what I expect to happen at all.

Our opposition in these countries understand something very clearly. That a gradual increase in aggression gives our military time to build a greater defense, import more weaponry, etc. Our military has been in their countries for many years and they have learned our tactics quite well. In many instances we trained them in our tactics. By the fact that our forces are still there, this indicates we have not learned their tactics nearly as well and even when we do, they adapt far more readily than our military is capable of.

Not only are these warnings but they are tests to see what our response will be. In Iraq, our bases suffered a minor attack. In response, our government is sending 3000 more soldiers into a country which we have been told to leave. Trump stated we have a right to claim their resources after destroying their country. Now they know how we will respond. Increased aggression and denial of sovereignty.

Maybe you still think this is just Trump. I will remind you that GWB ignored the UNSC and invaded Iraq. Obama asked Congress for approval to bomb Libya, was refused and bombed Libya, any way. Now the US is involving itself in talks about the future of Libya. We armed and funded Al Qaeda and ISIS.

I find it far more likely that the opposition in these countries will give little more warning and then strike our forces savagely. Completely overrun the US forces already in the region. They may take our forces prisoner or wipe them out entirely. Taking them hostage would make the most sense and what I would hope for. They may not see it that way in all cases.

In any case, removing those forces from action and seizing any armaments would strike a serious bow to any reinforcements we may attempt to introduce. Seizing the bases and all that is in them or destroying them would require that we send more heavy equipment. Personnel can be sent quickly. Large equipment and supplies takes more time. Days, weeks, even months.

Now consider if they should coordinate attacks across even one country, let alone alone 2, 3 countries or more, an area half the size of the US, what would this scenario look like?

Iraq has already taken their case to remove our forces to the UN General Assembly, knowing that the US controls the UNSC. It is not an appeal to use of force, it is an appeal for their own national sovereignty. Syria has tried the same and was basically denied that right but attempted their appeal through the UNSC. At this point, all nations are watching closely to see what happens. If Iraq is denied their own right to self determination, the answer for all these countries will be clear that they must take their fate into their own hands. Live enslaved or die fighting for their freedom. These warning shots have already told you what their choice will be.

I could be wrong or they could use a combination of approaches. Another choice could be that they could sever supply routes, order our forces to stand down in limited areas and disarm willingly. Still allowed food, water and shelter. Our entire military presence could be held prisoner on our own bases pending a more definitive decision on our part. Make the wrong decision and it would seal the fate of our forces already present. Remove the personnel and equipment already in the region as active components and becoming a hostage liability and the balance of power in our favor capsizes.

I’ve pointed out that the US has nothing to win in the Middle East when confronted with the array of sovereign nations increasingly aligning against us. Throw in the alliances with Russia and China with these nations and we would literally sacrifice all of our military forces along with the collapse of the petrodollar and hence the dollar by continuing to pursue the path of aggression we have been following for 18 years. The impending confrontation would obliterate our military and our economy and would be a useless blood bath, killing millions of human beings.

For what? So a few oil company CEO’s and investors can get richer? To sell more weapons? To avoid the shame of another military loss? We’ve been there before and survived it. Maybe it’s time we learned from the past and stopped substituting testosterone for brain cells. Maybe it’s time to admit this entire country has a case of Tiny Hand Syndrome.

How many lives are you willing to sacrifice? How much blood are you willing to spill? How much economic collapse can you withstand? The time has come to make that decision. Because our choice is now being made for us right now. We cannot chance how many warnings we will be allowed. This is not a Mexican standoff we are facing. This is a firing squad, fully locked and loaded. Should we throw our guns down and walk away? Or lift our weapon and die in a blaze of glory? That sounds a lot more romantic than it is.

This is not a movie and we have no heroic cause.

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